A股國際化 兩大關鍵詞
摘要
A股市場加快開放步伐,滬港通及深港通先後在2014及2016年開通,吸引外資大舉進入A股市場。在去年全球兩大指數公司更宣布將A股納入旗下主流指數之中,難怪在內地去年的十大A股關鍵詞當中,便包括了「MSCI擴容」和「A股入富」兩詞。
MSCI去年加快「擴容」
A股躋身國際性股票指數,在國際金融舞台的角色日益吃重。早在2013年,A股已獲摩根士丹利資本國際(MSCI)列入「潛在升級市場觀察名單」,並最終在2018年6月正式「入摩」,被納入MSCI新興市場指數,當時的納入因子只有2.5%
到了2019年3月,MSCI宣布在年內分三階段將A股的納入因子增加,即所謂的「擴容」。MSCI先在去年5月將指數中的中國A股納入因子從5%增加至10%,到8月份增至15%,並在11月底執行第三階段擴容至20%,完成「三步走」計劃。從此A股在MSCI中國指數和MSCI新興市場指數的權重分别增加至12.1%和4.1%1。
未來MSCI新興市場指數的A股權重預料會明顯增加,以反映內地A股市場的規模,並大幅改變未來新興市場基準指數的構成。假設指數中當前選定的A股數量100%納入指數之中,中國將佔該指數的43%;若按目前在A股市場交易的所有股票計算並以100%因子納入,則A股佔該指數的權重將進一步增至50%(見下圖)
中圖基於MSCI在2019年11月的建議,即將472隻大型及中型內地A股納入MSCI新興市場指數。 右圖基於所有中國股票可納入MSCI新興市場指數的 假設。我們採用85%的折扣係數,應大約代表內地A股的大型及中型股領域。
資料來源:MSCI、美銀美林、安聯投資
A股分階段「入富」
另一邊廂,A股亦在去年起納入富時羅素(FTSE Russell)指數,首輪同樣以「三步走」方式將A股的納入因子由5%增至20%。首兩步已在去年6月及9月完成,原定在今年3月會完成第三步,將其全球指數系列中的納入因子由15%提升至25%。
不過, 富時羅素就市況作出評估,於早前公布第三步將分為兩階段進行,首階段在3月進行其中的四分一,另外四分三將留待6月季檢時進行。
「擴容」和「入富」後, 外資勢必進一步吸納A股。市場分析指,根據追蹤MSCI指數的資金規模,單是去年11月的指數調整,A股的增量資金規模便達到約350-400億美元。而根據人行去年三季度末數據,外資持有中國股票規模更超過了1萬7千億元人民幣,創下有記錄以來歷史新高。投資者是時候考慮快人一步,率先充分把握中國股市的當前機遇。
A股國際化時序
2014年11月/A股正式開放滬港通渠道
2016年12月/A股正式開放深港通渠道
2018年6月/MSCI宣佈將A股年納入新興市場指,初期納入因子為2.5%,到9月升至5%。
2018年9月/富時羅素宣佈分三階段將A股納入全球股票指數體系
2019年3月/MSCI宣佈年內分三階段將A股納入因子將分階段由5%增加至20%
2019年6月/A股首次納入富時羅素全球股票指數體系
2019年11月/MSCI 完成「擴容」三步曲
2020年3月/A股首階段納入富時羅素指數延遲至6月完成
1 MSCI, 截至2019 年 11 月 7 日
A股術語你要知:白馬、黑馬與斑馬
摘要
香港投資者對於港股術語當然耳熟能詳,紅籌股、H股等用詞都不會陌生,但當投資於A股市場時,相信不少港股投資者會被A股的術語「考起」。
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