中國A股策略│ 最新市場動向
- 過去數週,中國股市跟隨美國輕微下跌,特別是科技股出現調整。
- 中國A股市場的組成截然不同,其結構更加多元化,較少由科技股主導。MSCI中國A股在岸指數中最大的公司是一家白酒商,其比重為4.6%。1
- 然而,市場對早前表現較佳者進行輪換 ─ 科技及健康護理等行業出現顯著獲利回套,而公用事業等表現落後的行業則回升。
- 上述市場變動是在眾所周知的宏觀風險下進行。特朗普總統繼續將中國置於其競選連任策略的中心,上週較早時候,他重申其將為世界上兩個最大、最緊密聯繫的經濟體「脫鈎」的承諾。
- 雖然「中美合作」終結繼續是爭拗的議題,但事實上,出現實際行動的跡象仍相對較少。普華永道中國訪問200多家在華營運的美國公司,這周的調查結果顯示,只有不到4%的受訪者已將生產線遷回美國。雖然關稅上升,但仍有超過70%的企業沒有計劃將工廠遷出中國。
- 資金流向方面,估計美國投資者投資於中國股票的金額約為1萬億美元,當中約一半為在美國上市的美國預託證券,投資於中國A股的只有1,000億美元,大部分來自對沖基金及互惠基金。2 理論上,美國投資者完全撤出美國預託證券投資大約需要130天,然而撤出A股投資只需要3天。因此,中美脫鈎對A股的直接影響或有限。
- 或許,美國公司不願離開中國的原因是,最新跡象顯示中國經濟或已大致擺脫疫情並回升。過去一個月,中國本地的新型冠狀病毒感染病例僅為少數。
- 此外,中國在應對疫情方面已有經驗,應可應付未來的爆發,數月前嚴格的公共衛生控制措施大致已停止,體溫及健康檢查仍很普遍,但中國大部分人已不再需要戴上口罩,城市亦陸續恢復夜生活。
- 隨著限制放寬,服務業開始反彈。休閒活動回升 ─ 餐廳重新開放,食品訂單較1月份上升12%。3 戲院票房收入增加,國內商務及休閑旅遊亦見回升。中國國內航班數目回升至接近一年前的水平 ─ 事實上,13家航空公司表示營運航班數量較去年8月更多。
- 第二季業績亦證實了中國經濟「最先爆發疫情,最先復甦」的理論。相比第一季下跌了50%,中國近4,000家上市非金融公司的第二季淨利潤總額按年持平,營運現金流亦大幅反彈。4 隨著經濟愈來愈廣泛地復甦,上市公司的盈利或可在今年餘下時間持續改善。
- 我們相信基本因素持續改善可為中國股票市場帶來支持。這次跌市相對受控,並沒有如數年前那樣每日大幅波動。我們仍然認為,這是一次「減速」,是大幅反彈後的一段健康整固期。
除另有註明外,所有資料均來自安聯投資,截至2020年9月11日。
1 資料來源:MSCI,截至2020年8月31日。
2 資料來源:Goldman Sachs,截至2020年9月7日。
3 資料來源:Gavekal,截至2020年9月7日。
4 資料來源:Gavekal,截至2020年9月1日。
焦點系列: 5大原則實現成功的中國投資策略
#5我們的研究顯示,將一些資金轉投A股有望改善投資組合的風險回報率
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