駕馭利率變化

定息收益前瞻 — 2025年5月 (只提供英文版本)

亞洲和新興市場繼續在全球貿易動盪中表現出色,超越了其他定息收益資產類別。

Asian and emerging markets in pole position

Among regional credit markets, Asian corporate bonds issued in US dollars maintained their pole position year-to-date, helped by higher yields and despite suffering recently from spread widening. Among sovereigns, emerging-market government bonds denominated in local currencies lead by a wide margin, with a total return of more than 9% on an unhedged US dollar basis (see Chart of the Month). Stronger local currencies against the US dollar explain roughly half of that performance, with the remainder due to falling local yields, across a diverse set of countries including Brazil, India, Mexico and South Korea.

An expectation that the US economy will underperform other major markets in 2025, and concerns about US policy credibility, are sustaining downward pressure on the US dollar. This situation benefits our negative US dollar stance and our corresponding long positions in the euro, Korean won and Brazilian real. We are also long the Indonesian rupiah – a relative underperformer that we expect to catch up with gains made by other emerging-market currencies. Additionally, as a hedge against possibly higher US tariffs on China, we are positioned to gain from a depreciation in the Chinese yuan.

In core rates markets, we continue to anticipate yield-curve steepening in the US and the euro area. While euro sovereign long-end yields are showing increased correlation with long-end US Treasury yields, short-term rates are better anchored as the European Central Bank and the US Federal Reserve stay on diverging paths. US rate cut expectations have been pushed out towards year end, whereas the euro area may cut rates again in June. In the meantime, China lowered benchmark lending rates for the first time since October.

In May it was Moody’s turn to downgrade the credit rating of the US by moving it one notch lower from the highest possible rating. Moody’s is the third major rating agency to do so. This development, along with a Congressional Budget bill containing a series of unfunded tax cuts, helped push up the 30-year US Treasury yield to 5.15% – a level not seen since October 2023. Also, a 20-year US Treasury bond auction saw softer-than-usual demand and priced around 5%, which compares with an average of around 4.6% from the previous six auctions.

Imminent monetary policy easing remains a greater likelihood in Europe. Annual euro area headline and core inflation in April came in rather contained, at 2.2% and 2.7% respectively. Together with weaker manufacturing survey data, that leaves room for the European Central Bank to deliver yet another 25-basis-point cut at its next meeting in early June. Another motivation to cut is the possibility that, unless there is a breakthrough in trade negotiations, the US may raise tariffs on EU imports to 50% starting on 9 July.

In contrast, UK monetary policy is likely to remain restrictive for a while longer. Annual headline inflation data for April surprised to the upside, at 3.5%, which was up from 2.6% in March. Higher UK public sector borrowing in April did not make for pleasant reading as the government seeks to meet its fiscal rules. Still, we see greater gains up ahead for 10-year Gilts compared with Bunds and Treasuries due to higher starting yields, tighter fiscal policy and a softer growth outlook, which may add pressure to cut rates in the second half of 2025.

Turning to corporate credit, earnings this season were solid across regions and above estimates for most sectors – excepting cyclicals such as autos, chemicals, homebuilders and retail. Companies largely confirmed guidance but with caution due to uncertainty around tariffs. Credit spreads have mostly returned to early April levels amid robust demand for high all-in-yields and more limited supply. We continue to favour financials and to focus on name-by-name selection with a tilt toward non-cyclicals, while generally avoiding issuers with notable refinancing needs and low equity cushions.

We would be remiss not to mention convertible bonds, which, due to their inherent quality of providing exposure to equity markets with a degree of downside protection, have had a smoother journey through this year’s bouts of volatility. With their lower sensitivity to interest-rate risk, and intrinsic “cushion” against falling equity prices, convertibles have delivered stable income and lower exposure to equity drawdowns while benefiting from the recovery in equity markets.

Source: Bloomberg, ICE BofA and JP Morgan indices; Allianz Global Investors, data as at 23 May 2025. Index returns in USD-hedged except for Euro indices (in EUR). Asian and emerging-market indices represent USD denominated bonds. Yield-to-worst adjusts down the yield-to-maturity for corporate bonds which can be “called away” (redeemed optionally at predetermined times before their maturity date). Effective duration also takes into account the effect of these “call options”. The information above is provided for illustrative purposes only, it should not be considered a recommendation to purchase or sell any particular security or strategy or as investment advice. Past performance, or any prediction, projection or forecast, is not indicative of future performance.

* Represents the lowest potential yield that an investor could theoretically receive on the bond up to maturity if bought at the current price (excluding the default case of the issuer). The yield to worst is determined by making worst-case scenario assumptions, calculating the returns that would be received if worst-case scenario provisions, including prepayment, call or sinking fund, are used by the issuer (excluding the default case). It is assumed that the bonds are held until maturity and interest income is reinvested on the same conditions. The yield to worst is a portfolio characteristic; in particular, it does not reflect the actual fund income. The expenses charged to the fund are not taken into account. As a result, the yield to worst does not predict future returns of a bond fund.


1. US Federal Reserve
Even though market expectations of a US rate cut have been pushed out towards year end, softer US inflation data and falling oil prices may mean there is still some policy easing in store for 2025. The US central bank’s policy stance remains data-dependent and cautious, with a preference to cut later rather than sooner. This wait-and-see approach seems to favour a 50-basis-point cut late in the year rather a series of smaller cuts.

2. Euro area inflation
The European Central Bank is expected to cut rates by another 25 basis points in June. With the threat of higher US tariffs, the market has repriced euro area terminal rate expectations lower. The next inflation reading for the euro area is coming into focus and could fall below 2% thanks to lower oil prices and a stronger euro. The June meeting of the European Central Bank may offer more clues on how policymakers view the balance of risks.

3. Asian high yield
With many Asian credit sectors either domestic-facing or otherwise unscathed by new US tariffs, any widening in credit spreads driven by market sentiment or policy uncertainty may provide entry points for investors to lock in higher income. Asian high-yield bonds issued in US dollars continue to offer the highest carry across regional credit markets. We are watching sectors such as renewables in India and gaming in Macau where we maintain overweight positions.

 


Sources: Bloomberg, JP Morgan indices; Allianz Global Investors, data as at 23 May 2025. The information above is provided for illustrative purposes only, it should not be considered a recommendation to purchase or sell any particular security or strategy or as investment advice. Past performance, or any prediction, projection or forecast, is not indicative of future performance.

A favourable balance between currency, inflation and growth has supported local currency bond gains in emerging markets. US dollar weakness and peaking inflation expectations, or ongoing disinflation, have given many emerging-market central banks a runway to ease policy. Central banks in India, the Philippines and Thailand have cut rates, both as a cushion to a potentially softer growth outlook, and to defend their economies from the impeding impact of new US tariffs. Current accounts generally look healthy, enabling many countries to build up their foreign exchange reserves. Hard currency debt has also posted positive performance, above US Treasuries, despite giving up some gains recently due to spread widening. Hard-currency bonds include a diverse range of sovereign and corporate opportunities. Many of these have so far escaped the brunt of new US tariffs, particularly in Latin America and the Middle East.

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安聯投資點評

主題展望

全球股市在4月和5月再次經歷動盪,投資者憂慮特朗普總統的「解放日」關稅及各國的回應措施可能會令全球經濟陷入衰退,股市於初期暴跌。但隨著特朗普改變立場,為貿易談判創造空間,股市收復了先前大部分的失地。

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駕馭利率變化

亞洲和新興市場繼續在全球貿易動盪中表現出色,超越了其他定息收益資產類別。

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駕馭利率變化

在今年餘下時間,我們認為有數個因素支持亞洲信貸延續去年的強勁表現。

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安聯投資

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    • 安聯環球投資基金作為UCITS規例下的傘子型基金,旗下設有投資於固定收益證券、股票及金融衍生工具的多個不同附屬基金,每一附屬基金各具不同的投資目標及/或風險取向

    • 所有附屬基金 (「附屬基金」)可投資於金融衍生工具,會涉及較高的槓桿、交易對手、流通性、估值、波幅、市場及場外交易風險。附屬基金的衍生工具風險承擔淨額最多為其資產淨值的50%。

    • 部份附屬基金的部份投資亦可投資於任何一項工具或工具的組合,例如固定收益證券、新興市場證券及/或按揭證券、資產擔保證券、房地產相關資產(尤其是房地產投資信託基金)及/或結構產品及/或衍生工具,該工具可能會涉及不同潛在風險(包括槓桿、交易對手、流通性、估值、波幅、市場、相關房地產價值及租金收入波動及場外交易風險)。

    • 部份附屬基金可投資於單一國家或行業〔尤其是小型股/中型股公司〕。相對於比較多元化的附屬基金,該等附屬基金或會因其集中投資而承擔較高風險。部份附屬基金須承受重大風險包括投資/一般市場、國家及區域、新興市場〔如中國內地〕、信貸能力/信貸評級/評級下調、違約、資產配置、利率、波幅及流通性、交易對手、主權債務、估值、信貸評級機構、公司特定、貨幣〔尤其是人民幣〕、人民幣債務證券及中國內地的稅務的風險。

    • 部份附屬基金可投資於可換股債券、高收益、非投資級別投資及未獲評級證券,須承擔較高風險(包括波動性、本金及利息虧損、信貸能力和評級下調、違約、利率、一般市場及流通性的風險),因此可對部份附屬基金的資產淨值構成不利影響 。可換股債券將受提前還款風險及股票走勢所影響,而且波幅高於傳統債券投資。

    • 部份附屬基金可將相當比例的資產投資於由非投資級別主權發行機構〔例如菲律賓〕所發行或擔保的附息證券,因而須承擔較高的流通性、信用/違約及集中程度的風險,以及較大波動及較高風險水平。因此投資者可會蒙受嚴重虧損。

    • 部份附屬基金可投資於歐洲國家。歐洲經濟及財政困境有可能會惡化,因而對此附屬基金構成不利影響(如增加歐洲投資所附帶的波動、流通性及貨幣的風險)。

    • 部份附屬基金或會透過滬/深港通或中國銀行間債券市場或其他海外投資渠道制度及╱或相關容許的其他方式而直接及╱或透過一切合資格工具而間接投資中國A股、中國B股及╱或中國債務證券市場故此須承受相關風險〔包括額度限制、規則及規例的更改、基金匯回款項限制、交易限制、中國市場波動及不穩定、潛在的結算及交收困難、交易對手違約、中國經濟、社會和政治政策的變動及中國內地稅務等風險〕。滬/深港通及合格境外機構投資者計劃投資中國A股市場故此須承受相關風險(包括額度限制、規則及規例的更改、交易限制、結算及交收、中國市場波動及不穩定、中國經濟、社會和政治政策的變動及稅務等風險)。投資於人民幣計價股份類別亦須承受人民幣相關的貨幣風險及因貨幣貶值對該股份類別構成不利影響。

    • 部分附屬基金可採取以下策略,可持續及責任投資策略、SDG策略、可持續發展關鍵績效指標策略(相對)、綠色債券策略、多元資產可持續發展策略、可持續發展關鍵績效指標策略(絕對界線)、環境、社會及管治(「ESG」)評分策略及可持續發展關鍵績效指標策略(絕對)。如採取以上策略,附屬基金須承受策略相對的可持續投資風險〔如導致附屬基金在有利條件下放棄買入若干證券的機會,及╱或在不利條件下出售證券或倚賴來自第三方ESG研究數據供應商及內部分析的資料及數據,其可能帶有主觀成份、不完整、不準確或無法取得,及╱或與基礎廣泛的基金相比會減低風險分散程度〕。此舉有機會導致附屬基金更為波動,及對附屬基金表現構成不利影響,因而對投資者於附屬基金的投資構成不利影響。此外,部分附屬基金可能特別專注於被投資公司的溫室氣體排放效率,而非其財務表現。

    • 部份附屬基金可投資於固定分派百分比股份類別(AMf類股份)。投資者務請注意,固定分派百分比不獲保證。該股份類別不能替代支付固定利息的投資。AMf類股份的分派百分比與該等股份類別或本附屬基金的預期或過去收入或回報無關。如果基金錄得負回報,固定分派百分比股份類別將繼續作出分派,因而可能對基金的資產淨值構成不利影響。正數派息率並不代表正數回報。

    • 投資所涉及的風險可能導致投資者損失部份或全部投資金額。

    • 投資者不應單靠本〔網站/文件〕的資料而作出投資決定。

    附註:此附屬基金派息由基金經理酌情決定。派息或從附屬基金資本中支付,或實際上從資本中撥付股息。這即等同從閣下原本投資金額及╱或從金額賺取的資本收益退回或提取部份款項。這或令每股資產淨值即時下降,及令可作未來投資的附屬基金資本和資本增長減少。因對沖股份類別參考貨幣與附屬基金結算貨幣之間的息差,有關對沖股份類別之分派金額及資產淨值會因而更受到不利影響。股息派發適用於A/AM/AMg/AMi/AMgi/AQ 類收息股份(每年/月季派息)及僅作參考,並沒有保證。正數派息率並不代表正數回報。有關附屬基金股息政策詳情,請參閱銷售文件。


    安聯環球投資亞洲基金

    • 安聯環球投資亞洲基金(「本信託」)乃遵照香港法例並根據信託契約而構成成的傘子單位信託。安聯精選主題收益基金安聯寰通收益及增長基金及安聯收益增值基金是本信託的附屬基金(每一「附屬基金」),投資於固定收益證券、股票及衍生工具,每一附屬基金各具不同的投資目標及/或風險取向。

    • 部份附屬基金須承受重大風險包括投資/一般市場、個別公司有關、新興市場、信貸用能力╱信用評級╱調低信用評級、違約、波動性及流通性、估值、主權債務、主題集中程度、以主題為基礎的投資策略、交易對手、利率變動、國家及地區、貨幣及資產配置及貨幣〔如外匯管制,尤其是人民幣〕的風險,及因貨幣貶值對人民幣計價股份類別構成的不利影響。的風險。 歐洲經濟及財政困境有可能惡化,因而會對該等附屬基金構成不利影響〔如增加歐洲投資所附帶的波動、流通性及貨幣的風險〕。

    • 部份附屬基金可投資於其他集體投資計劃及交易所買賣基金。投資於交易所買賣基金或須承受額外風險,如被動投資、追蹤誤差、終止及與相關指數有關的風險。而投資於其他集體投資計劃須承受與該集體投資計劃有關的風險。

    • 部份附屬基金投資於高收益(非投資級別與未評級)投資及/或可換股債券,須承擔較高風險,如波動性、違約、利率變動、一般市場及流通性的風險,因此可對此基金的資產淨值構成不利影響 。可能會增加原本投資金額損失之風險。可換股債券將受提前還款風險及股票走勢所影響,而且波幅高於傳統債券投資。

    • 所有附屬基金可投資於金融衍生工具,附屬基金會涉及較高的槓桿、交易對手、流通性、估值、波動性、市場及場外交易風險。運用衍生工具可能導致附屬基金承受超出原有投資款額的虧損。附屬基金的衍生工具風險承擔淨額最多為其資產淨值的50%。

    • 這項投資所涉及的風險可能導致投資者損失部分或全部投資金額。

    • 投資者不應僅就本網站而作出投資決定。
       

    附註:附屬基金派息由基金經理酌情決定。派息或從基金收入及/或從資本中支付,這即等同從閣下原本投資金額及╱或從金額賺取的資本收益退回或提取部份款項。這或令每個收息單位資產淨值即時下降,及令可作未來投資的基金資本和資本增長減少。因對沖股份類別參考貨幣與附屬基金結算貨幣之間的息差,有關對沖股份類別之分派金額及資產淨值會因而更受到不利影響。股息派發適用於A/AM/AMg/AMi/AMgi類收息股份(每年/月派息)及僅作參考,並沒有保證。正數派息率並不代表正數回報。有關附屬基金股息政策詳情,請參閱銷售文件。 

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